Can a Computer Algorithm Predict the Success of Books?

The Guardian reports that an assistant professor at Stony Brook University in New York claims to have created an algorithm that uses a quantitative approach to predict literary success with an accuracy rate of 84 per cent. The researchers used Project Gutenberg to identify works (poetry was also included); analyzed the literary style of the first one thousand lines of each work; and correlated the results with the number of downloads the title had received. They then identified the stylistic elements in the successful writings. They also applied their analysis to titles outside the Gutenberg database, such as works by Ernest Hemingway, Truman Capote, Philip Roth, and Dan Brown, and were able to predict successful writings at a rate of 70 per cent. (Their system was apparently confused by Hemingway's minimalist style because the algorithm depends on a "high-level syntactic structure".)

In terms of their findings, the less successful books rely on verbs that are "explicitly descriptive of actions and emotions", whereas more successful books contain straightforward verbs such as "say". The less successful books also contain a higher percentage of verbs, adverbs, and foreign words; topical words that are almost clichés; and extreme and negative words.

The study also found that there is an inverse relation between "success" as defined by the attainment of literary awards and the "readability" of a work.
 

For the full text of the article from The Guardian, please click here.

If you're interested in reading the academic paper itself, please click here.

Dan Brown's Next Bestseller

I recently received a promo on my e-reader for Dan Brown's new novel Inferno, which is to be released on May 13.  His latest offering will once again feature the protagonist Robert Langdon, popularized by Tom Hanks in the movie adaptations of Brown's novels.  It is anticipated that Inferno will become a massive bestseller as did its predecessors, The Da Vinci Code and The Lost Symbol. 

A recent Globe and Mail article at http://www.theglobeandmail.com/arts/why-book-buying-stats-might-stifle-the-next-great-author/article6755208/ presents a very different perspective.  The article points out that in the current publishing environment, The Da Vinci Code, which was Brown's fourth novel and has sold over 80 million copies worldwide, would probably never have seen the light of day.  The reason?  Publishers can now access an author's book sales on such services as Nielsen Bookscan in the US and BookNet Canada. Publishers are sticking with proven best-selling authors.  Brown's first three novels, Digital Fortress, Angels & Demons, and Deception Point, sold less than 10,000 copies each in their first printing.  (These books, of course, have been reissued after the success of The Da Vinci Code, and Brown's novel sales top 200 million worldwide.)  This means that in today's environment, publishers probably wouldn't have taken a chance in publishing The Da Vinci Code. 

What does all of this mean for mid-list authors?  According to the article, many of them are being squeezed out as the foreign-owned multinational publishers merge and pare their lists.  The result is that mid-list authors are being forced to list with small publishers with limited marketing ability. 

What do you think?  Will the current climate in the publishing industry mean that only “bestsellers” published by instantly-recognizable names such as Dan Brown, regardless of their literary merit, will now see the light of day? Or is there still room for mid-list and beginner writers to make their mark either through e-publishing or small-press publications?  I'd be very interested in hearing your feedback.